2007: A Busy Year for Hurricanes in the U.S.?
by Bob La Coste on 2007-09-22
2007: A Busy Year for Hurricanes in the U.S.?
The awesome destructive force of Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, has re-awakened the world to what a powerful hurricane can do, in the wrong place at the wrong time. The year 2007 could produce more of the same, with increased hurricane activity forecasted for the Atlantic Ocean producing more hurricanes than normal, and with a higher strike probability on the U.S. coastline.
The Tropical Meteorology Project, at Colorado State University is the entity that produces our most reliable, and most widely used hurricane forecasts. Each year, for the past 24 years, Dr. William Gray and Doctorate Candidate Phil Klotzbach study worldwide weather trends, and past activity, and then apply sophisticated computer modeling to attempt to forecast what we can expect in the upcoming year. Their forecasts have historically been surprisingly accurate, given the difficult nature of the subject. What they tell us for 2007 should serve as a warning, far in advance of the actual need.
For example, during the last century, the probability of a major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) striking somewhere on the U.S. coastline in any particular year has been 52%; in 2007 that probability climbs to 64%.
Also, during the period 1950-2000, there were on average 5.9 hurricanes per year, in 2007 we can expect 7 hurricanes, an ominous increase.
During the same period of 1950-2000, there were on average 9.6 “named storms” (which are tropical storms and/or hurricanes), in 2007 we can expect 14.
Finally, the Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 is forecasted to be about 140 percent of the long-term average.
The above information, and much more, will be used by Federal, State and local governments to help anticipate their needs for 2007, so that they can respond adequately to the increased risks that are faced by all the States that border the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.
Individual citizens should also take precautions, as the hurricane season nears, to protect their lives and property. By remaining vigilant during the hurricane season (1 June to 30 November) and taking prudent action when a Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning is issued, citizens can do much to protect themselves and their loved ones from the type of destruction and loss that the victims of Hurricane Katrina suffered, and are still trying to fully recover from, today.
There are many ways to keep informed of hurricane activity. These days, the internet is the best and most useful source of weather information; providing tracking information from the birth of a hurricane to its landfall. With the resources that are available today, you will never be caught off-guard.
As the hurricane season of 2007 draws near, and threatens to be very intense, we can at least take heed of the warning. If past history is any indication of future performance, our government agencies will be hard pressed to deal with a large-scale disaster. So, individually we should ensure that we are ready for whatever may come.
The awesome destructive force of Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, has re-awakened the world to what a powerful hurricane can do, in the wrong place at the wrong time. The year 2007 could produce more of the same, with increased hurricane activity forecasted for the Atlantic Ocean producing more hurricanes than normal, and with a higher strike probability on the U.S. coastline.
The Tropical Meteorology Project, at Colorado State University is the entity that produces our most reliable, and most widely used hurricane forecasts. Each year, for the past 24 years, Dr. William Gray and Doctorate Candidate Phil Klotzbach study worldwide weather trends, and past activity, and then apply sophisticated computer modeling to attempt to forecast what we can expect in the upcoming year. Their forecasts have historically been surprisingly accurate, given the difficult nature of the subject. What they tell us for 2007 should serve as a warning, far in advance of the actual need.
For example, during the last century, the probability of a major hurricane (category 3, 4, or 5) striking somewhere on the U.S. coastline in any particular year has been 52%; in 2007 that probability climbs to 64%.
Also, during the period 1950-2000, there were on average 5.9 hurricanes per year, in 2007 we can expect 7 hurricanes, an ominous increase.
During the same period of 1950-2000, there were on average 9.6 “named storms” (which are tropical storms and/or hurricanes), in 2007 we can expect 14.
Finally, the Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 is forecasted to be about 140 percent of the long-term average.
The above information, and much more, will be used by Federal, State and local governments to help anticipate their needs for 2007, so that they can respond adequately to the increased risks that are faced by all the States that border the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.
Individual citizens should also take precautions, as the hurricane season nears, to protect their lives and property. By remaining vigilant during the hurricane season (1 June to 30 November) and taking prudent action when a Hurricane Watch or Hurricane Warning is issued, citizens can do much to protect themselves and their loved ones from the type of destruction and loss that the victims of Hurricane Katrina suffered, and are still trying to fully recover from, today.
There are many ways to keep informed of hurricane activity. These days, the internet is the best and most useful source of weather information; providing tracking information from the birth of a hurricane to its landfall. With the resources that are available today, you will never be caught off-guard.
As the hurricane season of 2007 draws near, and threatens to be very intense, we can at least take heed of the warning. If past history is any indication of future performance, our government agencies will be hard pressed to deal with a large-scale disaster. So, individually we should ensure that we are ready for whatever may come.
About The Author: The author has created a website: www.Hurricane-Tracking.us This site provides current world wide hurricane information (tracking, weather radar, satellite photos, and much more) for any hurricane, anywhere in the world. It also provides a free email notification service of a hurricane watch or hurricane warning, so you will be immediately aware.